POP Watch

Introducing BOPSä
Modifying OPS Right On The Moneyball

Introduction

On Base Average Plus Slugging (OPS) has gained popularity over the last few years as easy shorthand to evaluate a batters ability. Adding the batter’s On Base Average (OBA) to his Slugging Average (SLG) has one significant disadvantage according to baseball experts Rob Neyer and Paul DePodesta (Assistant GM of the Oakland A’s), one extra point of OBA is worth more than one extra point of SLG. Mr. Neyer has suggested that modifying OPS with a formula of (1.4*OBA)+SLG might do the trick. This formula is the same as adding a percentage of OBA to OPS. He also writes that Mr. DePodesta would probably think the number added should be greater than 40% of OBA.

The BOPS™ Solution

Batting Average, On Base, Plus Slugging (BOPSä) is the solution. Besides the fact that performing multiplication on a three digit number with a two digit number while drinking your fourth frosty beverage at the ballpark is not something most fans want to do, the correlation to Runs Created (RC/600 plate appearances) is higher using the BOPSä method than OPS or modified OPS with factors of 1.4, 1.5, 1.6,1.7, 1.8, 1.9, or 2.0.

Is a walk as good as a hit?

The reason for this is clear. A walk is not as good as a hit. If it were, there would be far fewer intentional walks. The manager orders intentional walks generally when first base is open. Imagine if there were a rule change providing for the advancement of all base runners rather than base runners who are forced when an intentional walk was issued. With runners at second and third a run would score. Managers would think twice before a free pass was given to the hitter.

Our research has proven that the modification factor for OPS is the proportion of hits to times reaching base safely. Rather than do the division, one can just add batting average to OBA than add that sum to SLG to determine the quality of the offense produced by any hitter. Hitters who have the same OPS but different BOPSä always produce different RC/600 Plate Appearances. Always the player with the most BOP produces more runs (unadjusted for ballpark and era)! Getting on base 200 times in 500 plate appearances is not the same as hitting .400.

Let’s use the simple version of Bill James’ Runs Created to demonstrate. In this formula we multiply times on base by total bases and divide by plate appearances. Here are two hitters one with 200 singles in 500 at bats and 0 walks. The other hitter has 80 singles and 20 home runs along with 100 walks in 400 at bats.

Player 1

(200 times on base*200 total bases)/.500 plate appearances=80 Runs Created. Batting Average is .400, OBA is .400, and SLG is .400 for a BOPSä of 1.200

Player 2

(200 times on base*160 total bases)/500 plate appearances 64 Runs Created. Batting Average is .250, OBA is .400, and SLG is .400 for a BOPSä of 1.050.

Player 1 creates 16 more runs with the same OPS. A walk is not as good as a hit. Batting average does matter, though it is not the be all and end all that some believed prior to the advancements made by our Sabermetric brethren.

Using the Sabermetric Encyclopedia we generated the following groups of players with similar plate appearances and similar OPS totals. The BOPSä total is different due to the differential in batting average. The RC for these players is adjusted for ballpark and era. Both groups have OPS of .921. One group has BOPSä of 1.207, the other of 1.256. In 46 more plate appearances the higher BOPSä group produced 50 more runs created.

.918-.925 OPS------ Less Than .300 AVG
PLAYER	YEAR	RC	AVG	OPS	BOPS	PA
Tim Salmon	1993	108	0.283	0.918	1.201	610
Willie McCovey	1968	109	0.293	0.923	1.216	608
Cliff Floyd	2002	111	0.288	0.920	1.208	609
Charlie Keller	1940	113	0.286	0.919	1.205	609
Hal Trosky	1940	115	0.295	0.920	1.215	608
Charlie Keller	1943	115	0.271	0.922	1.193	620
Larry Doby	1952	115	0.276	0.924	1.200	611
Reggie Jackson	1977	115	0.286	0.925	1.211	606
Mickey Cochrane	1932	118	0.293	0.921	1.214	625
		1019	0.286	0.921	1.207	5506

.918-.925 OPS--- Greater Than .310 AVG
PLAYER	YEAR	RC	AVG	OPS	BOPS	PA
Sam Chapman	1941	110	0.322	0.921	1.243	602
Happy Felsch	1920	111	0.338	0.923	1.261	613
Cesar Cedeno	1972	116	0.320	0.921	1.241	625
Jackie Robinson	1950	116	0.328	0.923	1.251	613
Rod Carew	1975	118	0.359	0.919	1.278	617
Larry Doyle	1911	118	0.310	0.924	1.234	622
Tris Speaker	1917	119	0.352	0.918	1.270	612
Minnie Minoso	1951	121	0.326	0.922	1.248	622
Ed McKean	1894	140	0.357	0.921	1.278	616
		1069	0.335	0.921	1.256	5542

Other groups are charted below.

.900-.908 OPS Less Than .300 AVG
CREATED	YEAR	RC	AVG	OPS	BOPS	PA
Roy Sievers	1958	105	0.295	0.900	1.195	614
Gavy Cravath	1914	108	0.299	0.901	1.200	604
Gavy Cravath	1915	109	0.285	0.902	1.187	621
Greg Vaughn	1996	106	0.260	0.903	1.163	609
Bobby Grich	1979	102	0.294	0.903	1.197	609
Steve Finley	2000	107	0.280	0.904	1.184	623
Reggie Jackson	1974	108	0.289	0.905	1.194	604
Eric Karros	1995	106	0.298	0.905	1.203	620
Jesse Barfield	1985	105	0.289	0.905	1.194	612
Rickey Henderson	1993	119	0.289	0.906	1.195	610
Todd Hundley	1996	104	0.259	0.906	1.165	624
Larry Hisle	1978	102	0.290	0.906	1.196	600
Reggie Jackson	1982	105	0.275	0.907	1.182	621
AVERAGE		1386	0.285	0.904	1.189	7971

.900-.908 OPS Greater Than .300 AVG
CREATED	YEAR	RC	AVG	OPS	BOPS	PA
Joe Gordon	1942	108	0.322	0.900	1.222	625
Mike Higgins	1934	113	0.330	0.901	1.231	606
Johnny Mize	1942	111	0.305	0.901	1.206	607
Brian Jordan	1998	107	0.316	0.902	1.218	617
Larry Hisle	1977	106	0.302	0.902	1.204	620
George Brett	1990	105	0.329	0.902	1.231	607
Harvey Kuenn	1959	116	0.353	0.903	1.256	617
Jeff Bagwell	1993	105	0.320	0.903	1.223	609
George Altman	1962	109	0.318	0.904	1.222	603
Baby Doll Jacobson	1925	107	0.341	0.905	1.246	602
Tony Lazzeri	1932	106	0.300	0.905	1.205	601
Hugh Duffy	1895	137	0.352	0.907	1.259	614
Ted Simmons	1977	100	0.318	0.908	1.226	601
AVERAGE		1430	0.324	0.903	1.227	7929

Down near replacement level the difference is huge as well. In this group of pairings the group with the higher BOPSä generates 118 more Runs Created than the lower BOPSä group in only 607 more plate appearances. One season's worth of All-Star level Runs Created from replacement level players!

OPS .700-.710 with AVG < .275
CREATED	YEAR	RC	OPS	PA	AVG	BOPS
Ken Henderson	1975	63	0.702	597	0.251	0.953
Ken Boyer	1965	63	0.702	604	0.260	0.962
Buddy Kerr	1944	67	0.703	598	0.266	0.969
Bill Bruton	1963	67	0.703	594	0.256	0.959
Billy Shindle	1893	91	0.704	595	0.261	0.965
Wes Parker	1971	68	0.704	609	0.274	0.978
Kevin Bass	1988	66	0.704	595	0.255	0.959
Woody English	1932	66	0.704	591	0.272	0.976
Rip Russell	1939	65	0.704	594	0.273	0.977
Miller Huggins	1904	77	0.705	596	0.263	0.968
Bill Melton	1975	66	0.705	607	0.240	0.945
Sam Mele	1951	63	0.705	594	0.274	0.979
Jim Bottomley	1933	68	0.706	609	0.250	0.956
Phil Garner	1976

Introducing BOPSä Modifying OPS Right On The Moneyball

Introduction

The BOPS™ Solution

Is a walk as good as a hit?

Introducing BOPSä
Modifying OPS Right On The Moneyball